No, “Tio Bernie” is not bringing out millions of Latinos to vote

by Alex Gonzalez

Both the LA Times and the New York Times have similar stories underscoring that “Latino wave put Bernie Sanders on top in California.” But no data exist to show that waves of Latinos are supporting “Tio Bernie.” However, turnout in California does shows that Sanders is losing his 2016 voter base.

In 2016, Sanders lost the CA 2016 primary to Hillary Clinton by a 53-to-46% margin, and by an even larger gap among Latinos. But sanders did get 2,326,030 votes or 45% of the total vote.

Last night results in the California primary does who that Sanders leading with 33% followed by Biden with 24%. But, with 100% of all the votes counted, 33% amount to only 1,004,879 of Californian who voted for Sanders. Support for Sanders in California not only dropped from 45% in 2016 to 33% in 2020, but Sanders lost more than I.3 million of votes from 2016.

The Pew Hispanics shows that, in 2020, California alone holds roughly a quarter of the nation’s Latino electorate, with 7.9 million Latinos eligible vote. Results from last night show Sanders getting only 1,004,879

In the preliminary estimates from exit polls, 27-28% of the voters were Hispanic, and according to exit poll, Sanders won 49% of Hispanic/Latino vote.

The California Secretary of Sates official results show that 2,963,047 voted for a Democrat candidates – and1,004,879 voted for Sanders. But If only 28% of 2,963,047 is 829,653. It means that in California only about 400,000 Latinos voted for “Tio Bernie.”  This is not a ‘wave.”

Similarly, Texas has 5.6 million Latinos eligible vote. However, of the estimated 15 million of registered voters in Texas, only 617,710 voted for Sanders. There were a total of 2 million of votes in Texas, and exit polls suggest 28% those voters were Hispanics. 28% of 2 million is 560,000. 47% of 560,000 is 263,200

Sanders did win in many counties in South Texas – and Austin – that are predominantly Mexican-American. But theses counties have a very small populations compared to the big four metro areas of Texas where 70% of all voters live.

Sanders claims that he is expanding his base with multi-racial coalition of masses of new Latino voters. But no data exist yet to demonstrate that his “revolution” is wooing new voters. In fact, in states like California, Sanders lost about 1.3 million of votes.

Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst, Founder of Latino Public Policy Foundation (LPPF), and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote. Comments to [email protected] or @AlexGonzTXCA